As Guyana continues to earn hundreds of millions of US dollars from the sale of forest carbon credits, one question remains: is the country getting a fair price for protecting one of the world's largest intact tropical forests?
Speaking to this publication on the sidelines of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) Annual General Meeting in Rio de Janeiro, IATA Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist, Marie Owens Thomsen, stopped short of saying whether Guyana's credits were underpriced or overpriced, arguing instead that markets ultimately determine value.
"It is hard to say what the fair price is," Thomsen said." Like any product that comes to any market, the seller wants the highest possible price and the buyer wants the lowest possible price."
Her comments come as Guyana remains one of the world's most significant suppliers of jurisdictional forest carbon credits.
In 2022, the Government of Guyana signed a landmark agreement with Hess Corporation for the sale of 37.5 million ART-TREES carbon credits over a 10-year period for a minimum of US$750 million. The deal effectively values the credits at around US$20 each on average, although the initial deliveries were priced at US$15 per credit.
The agreement was hailed internationally as one of the largest forest carbon transactions ever completed and represented a major breakthrough for Guyana's Low Carbon Development Strategy.
Yet some have questioned whether Guyana's vast forests, covering more than 18 million hectares and storing billions of tonnes of carbon, should command even higher prices as demand for credible carbon credits grows. Others argue that the voluntary carbon market remains fragile and that securing a guaranteed buyer at a fixed long-term price was a prudent move.
Thomsen suggested there are risks in pushing prices too high.
"If we look at this from a global decarbonisation point of view, too high a price is also not particularly helpful," she explained. "What we want is as many CO₂ emissions reductions as possible for the available pool of money."
According to the economist, excessively expensive credits could discourage participation and reduce the overall volume of climate financing flowing into conservation projects and developing countries.
As a self-described free-market economist, Thomsen said she believes supply and demand are best placed to determine value.
"I tend to believe that the market will clear and find the equilibrium between supply and demand," she said.
For Guyana, however, the discussion extends beyond economics.
Revenue from carbon credits is financing indigenous village development plans, forest protection initiatives and wider low-carbon investments under the LCDS 2030 framework. The Hess agreement alone is expected to deliver at least US$750 million to the country between 2022 and 2032.
Thomsen argued that global carbon markets offer countries like Guyana afar greater opportunity than alternative climate financing proposals such as aviation ticket taxes.
"We can access not only airlines' money but investors' money from all over the world," she said. "Promoting the carbon market is really the way in which we can raise the most climate finance."
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